Here we are again for Pittsburgh Steelers fans. Another wild card game in the first round of the playoffs and the hope is for the first time in the last five playoff appearances Mike Tomlin’s team can advance to the next round. The Houston Texans are the opponent, and the game is set for Monday, January 12 in Pittsburgh.
Both teams have streaks in jeopardy. The Texans ride into Acrisure Stadium sporting a nine-game winning streak. The Pittsburgh Steelers with the game set for Monday Night Football have won 23 straight Monday Night Football games dating back to 1991 when Chuck Noll was the head coach. For Mike Tomlin, his teams have won 10 straight when playing in Pittsbugh. Overall, a Mike Tomlin led team is 20-3 when playing on Monday night.
So far, all the hype is on the Houston Texans defense. They are ranked number one in the league overall, but I refuse to believe they are some world beaters that is going to storm into Pittsburgh and manhandle the Steelers. To their credit, the Texans have defeated some good teams and are first in pass defense yielding 277 yards per game. Against the run they are fourth allowing opposing runners to rush for 93.7 yards per game.
In support of the Steelers, they have several things going their way no matter who they would be playing. First and foremost is that Monday Night record. Tomlin is the only head coach who is undefeated on Monday night and his 10 victories ties him with Sean Payton for most wins on this night. Another positive for the Steelers is that DK Metcalf returns from a two-game suspension. The offense was clicking before he was suspended and his absence probably cost the Steelers a chance to defeat the Cleveland Browns which would have rendered the Baltimore game meaningless.
Aaron Rodgers said leading up to this game the team wants to win this game for Mike Tomlin. They know about the first-round losses, and they want to get off the snide. So, think about it, a home game, Monday Night where we don’t lose, a team that will be fired up to win for Tomlin, a team that is beatable.
When the Texans have the ball
What we have here are two very good defenses. By the numbers Houston is a better defensive team than the Steelers. However, Pittsburgh has gotten it together in the second half of the season and has vastly improved their rushing defense. Houston’s offense is not as big a threat is what their defense brings to the table. Their leading rusher is Woody Marks, and he was 297 yards short this season of reaching 1,000 for the season. His per carry average is only 3.6 yards.
Is C.J. Stroud a threat to Pittsburgh’s secondary? He threw for 3,041 yards in 2025 and threw just six interceptions. He was sacked 23 times, and his favorite target is Nico Collins who made 71 catches this season for 1,117 yards. But he only scored six times. The Steelers defense has been stuffing runners at a much better rate in the latter half of the season, and I see no real threat from Houston’s backfield that indicates they will do any better. I believe Houston is going to have a very difficult time moving the ball against the Steelers.
When the Steelers have the ball
This is where I think the outcome of this game is decided. This game comes down to how well the Steelers can execute against the league’s best defense. The focus will be on Will Anderson Jr. and his partner in crime Danielle Hunter because between the two this season, they have sacked opposing quarterbacks 29 ½ times. Is the Steelers offensive line prepared for this? The one fact that is in Pittsburgh’s favor is Aaron Rodgers time of release in throwing the ball as he possess one of the fastest releases in the NFL. The Steelers would be well equipped to run the RPO often so that Rodgers can quickly offset any blitzes or quarterback pressure. However, I believe he will go downfield several times especially with DK Metcalf returning. I don’t believe the Texans have seen a combination of Jaylen Warren and Kennth Gainwell this season and that dynamic duo if used correctly can cause a lot of damage to a defense.
Intangibles
Playing at home. Advantage Steelers. The Monday Night Football record for Pittsburgh. Advantage Steelers. Throughout the history of MNF the Steelers possess the second-best record behind the Seattle Seahawks by winning 58 games, losing 31, and tying once. As indicated earlier Mike Tomlin has won 10 straight Monday night football games in Pittsburgh and is undefeated at home. Don’t forget how frenzied the crowd is going to be. You thought there were crazed last Monday facing Baltimore? Now we have an actual playoff game with fans that are starving for a playoff victory.
The Houston Texans and their city in Texas lost the Oilers to Tennessee many years ago and it wasn’t until 2002 that Houston gained another NFL team. It took the Texans six seasons before they posted a winning record and that was only 8-8 in 2007. It was another six years before they made the playoffs for the first time in 2011, but they lost in the divisional round after winning their division. Since then, Houston has made the postseason seven more times but have never gone past the divisional round.
As far as these two teams playing each other, there have only been eight games. The Steelers have won five of those. The last meeting was in 2023 in Houston and the Texans blew out Pittsburgh 30-6. Prior to that the Steelers had won the previous three games in 2014, 2017, and 2020 winning 30-23, 34-6, and 28-21 respectively. In their first year playing the Texans blew out the Steelers again 24-6 in Pittsburgh.
Mike Tomlin has been the Super Bowl twice winning once. Aaron Rodgers has a wealth of playoff experience and has won a Super Bowl with Green Bay. Experience has to count for something.
Prediction
Bill Cowher went on record this past week to say Mike Tomlin loves being the underdog. So, with that said, despite playing at home, the Steelers opened as a three-point dog. I strongly believe the Steelers’ defense is being underestimated. We will found out who the better defense is on Monday night.
Over on ESPN, the following experts all pick Houston to win and here are their scores:
- Pam Maldonado: 23-20
- Seth Walder: 19-16
- Eric Moody: 21-17
- Ben Solak: 24-13
I say hogwash. Do any of these so-called experts really think Houston will hold the Steelers to under 21 points? No chance. The Steelers are averaging 23 points per game and in the games, they won they averaged 27.3 points scored holding opponents to 19.3 points per game. When they lost the seven games on their schedule, they averaged 17.7 points in losing while surrendering 27.7 points in each loss.
