Fantasy Baseball is a research-intensive sport. While the managers buried in Statcast data, ADP trackers, and division previews during February seem to be overcomplicating things, they’re really building a structural advantage that will compound throughout the course of the 26-week season. According to FantasyPros Analyst Justin Mason: “Managers who create their own rankings 10 minutes prior to the draft will almost certainly finish dead-last.” This statement seems extreme; however, there is evidence to support it.
Pre-season research gives a manager a draft-day edge. The draft is the most important event of the season; every pick creates either equity or destroys it. There is a huge gap between the prepared manager and the unprepared manager that appears immediately.
One example of pre-season research creating a draft day edge in 2026 is Dylan Cease. His 4.55 ERA in 2025 looks terrible, but his xERA was 3.46, representing a difference of nearly one full run. The Blue Jays saw the disparity and committed $210 million to sign him. In 2026, managers that researched the same underlying metrics as the Blue Jays will be able to draft him at a lower price than his true value.
The same concept can be applied in reverse. Gavin Williams had a 3.06 ERA in 2025, which would appear to be a breakout. However, his xERA was 4.30 and his FIP was 4.39. Managers that rely solely on traditional statistics will reach for Williams. Managers that researched the underlying statistics will allow another manager to overpay for him.
Auction formats provide even clearer math. Shohei Ohtani’s true value as a two-way player may warrant approximately $100 of a $260 budget. Reaching that number involves process and research, not simply trusting your instincts.
The Metrics That Actually Predict Future Performance
For Hitters
xwOBA (Expected Weighted On Base Average): The Statcast metric used to evaluate hitters based on the expected outcome of each batted ball, as opposed to what actually occurred once the ball exited the bat. Its r² (.218) to predict next year’s wOBA is slightly greater than that of its replacement (actual wOBA’s r² = .191).
Barrel Rate: One of the most reliable indicators of a hitter’s power potential. Barrel rate combines optimal exit velocity and launch angle to produce a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage on contact. A high barrel rate combined with low launch angles suggests a hitter that is merely one mechanical adjustment away from a power breakout.
EV50: EV50 represents the average exit velocity of a hitter’s 50 fastest batted balls. EV50 is more reliable than raw average exit velocity. Bat Speed: Bat speed is a new Statcast statistic with 82 mph considered the minimum required to generate a “blast” when the batter squares up the ball. Nolan Schanuel gained 2.3 mph of bat speed in 2025, ranking sixth-best in baseball, making him an attractive name to monitor.
Sprint Speed Data: Sprint speed is directly related to projected stolen bases. Chandler Simpson of Tampa Bay has 40+ stolen base upside due to his sprint speed profile as elite in the lead-off role the Rays have given him.
For Pitchers
SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average): SIERA is the most predictive ERA estimator available, as it takes into account the items a pitcher actually controls (Strikeouts/Walks/Ground Balls/Fly Balls) and adjusts those items for park effects. The most compelling SIERA-based regression flag in baseball heading into 2026 is Andrew Abbott, who had a 2.87 ERA in 2025, but a 4.31 SIERA (the greatest differential in the majors). His 21% strikeout rate was well below average and his 31% GB rate was the lowest in the league. Significant regression is likely coming.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): xFIP is one of the stronger correlations to future ERA among all available pitching metrics. K-BB% remains the single best one-number pitcher indicator, and explains why Paul Skenes, Shohei Ohtani, and Bryan Woo consistently rank near the top of SP Boards.
Pitch mix changes are an underutilized resource for researching players. Matthew Boyd improved significantly in 2025 after changing the ratio of his sinker/slider/changeup pitches following an organizational change. Tracking pitch mix data from Trackman and Statcast in Spring Training often identifies similar scenarios early.
Common Mistakes that Cost Managers Titles
There are several common mistakes that cost managers titles, and most are easily avoided.
Treating ADP as Rankings: ADP is a Market Price. ADP is a reflection of the average of all drafter (both informed and uninformed). Using ADP as a substitute for your own research when the two conflict will result in leaving money on the table.
Ignoring Park Factors: Blake Snell had a 6.5% HR/FB rate in 2025, which could reasonably increase to twice that amount when he moves from Oracle Park (HR-FB suppressed 21% for RHB) to Dodger Stadium (HR-FB increased 26% for RHB). Conversely, Willy Adames is moving from Milwaukee to San Francisco, which will present a significant headwind to his power production. Three-year park factor samples are the minimum acceptable sample size to consider.
Missing Role Changes: Robert Garcia in Texas and Edwin Uceta in Tampa Bay are both closing candidates that are currently undervalued in drafts. Uceta had a 1.78 ERA with a 28.4% K-BB% in the second half of 2025. His ADP reflects neither of these statistics.
Recency Bias and Name-Value Bias: Spencer Strider is being drafted as an Ace in 2026, despite velocity and strikeout declines in his second season since Tommy John surgery. FanGraphs predicts a 3.85 ERA for Strider in 2026, which is very good, but not elite. Trevor Story had a .330 BABIP in 2025 and declining Quality-of-Contact Metrics, indicating that he is going 2-3 rounds too early in drafts relative to his floor.
AL East Preview: Why the Division is Worth Watching
The AL East is the most stacked division in terms of first and second round fantasy talent, and perhaps the most compelling rookie class in baseball. To get a comprehensive review of every team in the AL East, including key arrivals, departures, and players to watch for all five teams, the 2026 AL East fantasy baseball preview at FPTrack covers it in thorough detail.
To summarize the key storylines: the Yankees enter 2026 with Aaron Judge as a consensus top-two overall pick and a locked-in closer in David Bednar (35-plus save upside, 12.4 K/9), but a rotation depleted by Tommy John surgeries to both Gerrit Cole (back around June) and Clarke Schmidt (likely out all year). Cam Schlittler, who posted a 2.96 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 98 mph fastball in 14 starts last season, is a legitimate ace-upside breakout candidate available around pick 134.
Boston’s identity has shifted to pitching-first, with Garrett Crochet and Ranger Suárez forming the most talented Red Sox rotation in years. Suárez at an ADP around 254 is one of the cleaner values on the board. Roman Anthony, entering his first full MLB season, is going around pick 10 in dynasty mocks and drawing legitimate five-tool comparisons.
Baltimore is the division’s most interesting narrative. The Orioles lost 90-plus games in 2025, then signed Pete Alonso (132 RBI, .524 SLG), added Ryan Helsley from St. Louis, and brought in Kyle Bradish returning from Tommy John. Samuel Basallo, MLB Pipeline’s seventh or eighth overall prospect, hit 23 home runs in just 76 Triple-A games in 2025 (a 45-home run pace) and profiles as an AL Rookie of the Year contender with 40-plus home run upside if he earns everyday at-bats at Camden Yards, which ranked second in MLB in home run rate after fence adjustments.
Toronto made the World Series in 2025 and committed $337 million this offseason, headlined by the Cease signing. Trey Yesavage, their top pitching prospect and the Baseball America AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner, carries legitimate ace upside with an elite slider/splitter combination. If he is available outside the top 100, the value is difficult to ignore.
Tampa Bay is doing what Tampa Bay does, trading Baz, Lowe, and Fairbanks while building depth. Junior Caminero is the Rays’ headline asset, going around pick 18 in dynasty formats with extraordinary power at age 21. Shane McClanahan is the classic high-ceiling, high-risk late-round dart after more than two years of injury absences.
Final Framework for Manager Preparation
Winning managers in Fantasy Baseball consistently think in a certain manner. Winning managers construct their own rankings, as opposed to copying someone else’s. Winning managers utilize surface statistics such as ERA and batting average to explain what happened, and utilize advanced metrics such as xERA, xwOBA and SIERA to identify who a player actually is. Winning managers construct decision trees before the draft, as opposed to reacting in real time.
The research is available, the statistics are public, and the competitive advantage lies with the person who completes the work.
