As the Pittsburgh Steelers return from their 2025 bye week, they stay home to host the 1-4 Cleveland Browns. Cleveland comes off a tough loss to the Minnesota Vikings in London, a game in which they had the lead but lost it. Making his third NFL start and first in Pittsburgh is rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
If you think Mike Tomlin and his players are concerned about the kid QB with the Browns, all one needs is to review history of Tomlin vs. rookie signal callers. Tomlin has the third-best winning percentage in the National Football League since 1950 with a record of 26-6.
The Steelers defense seemed to find themselves in their previous victory against Minnesota and the type of performance expected of them this season seems to have begun. It remains to be seen if they can carry that over into this next game. The offense is still a work in progress, but the potential is there for that unit to be very efficient and explosive.
Interestingly enough, while 1950 was mentioned above, that was the year these two teams first met. The game was in Pittsburgh and the Browns won by a score of 30-13. The great Otto Graham was the quarterback for the Browns that day and in his backfield was another great player, Marion Motley.
Pittsburgh would lose the next seven meetings in the series getting shutout twice along the way. Then on October 17, 1954, the Steelers finally defeated Cleveland 55-27 in Pittsburgh. The Steelers would lose another seven in a row from 1967 through October 3, 1970, and again from 1986 through the first game of 1989.
Pittsburgh would have their own long winning streaks including a six game ride from 1977 through 1979. A seven game streak lasted from January 2, 1994, until it was broken on November 14, 1999. That lasted only two games as the Steelers won another six straight following the second loss. A beating by the Browns who won 33-13 on October 5, 2003, inspired Pittsburgh to reel off another long streak of 12 games that lasted seven consecutive seasons.
In the last 10 games, the two teams have split at five wins each. Overall, the Pittsburgh Steelers lead the series 82-61 with one tie. Three games have been playoff games with the Black and Gold winning two of them. In 30 games the Steelers have scored 30 or more points on Cleveland twice in the playoffs but one was on the losing end of a 48-37 score in 2021.
Pittsburgh’s high for points on the Browns is 55 scored in 1954 when they won 55-27. The also beat the Browns on their field 51-35 in 1979. In 1983, 1999, 1975, 2005, and 2011, the Steelers scored 44, 43, 42, 41, and 41 in those games, respectively. The Browns have shut out the Steelers four times in 1951 twice, 1957, and 1989 by scores of 51-0 (89), 24-0 (1957), and 28-0 as well as 24-0 both in 1951.
Cleveland on the other hand has scored over thirty 29 times, and over 40 ten times while hitting that 50 mark in 1989 when they won 51-0. While Cleveland’s defense pitched those four shutouts, the nasty Steelers ‘D scored a goose egg in six different games. In 1999 it was a 43-0 final. 2005 saw a shutout of 41-0 and in 1990 it was 35-0. On December 28, 2008, Pittsburgh won 31-0 while in 1972 it was 30-0. Finally, there was 22-0 in 2000.
When the Browns Have the Ball
The Cleveland Browns offense in 2025 thus far has outperformed Pittsburgh’s offense despite the Steelers putting Aaron Rodgers on the field and the Browns with Joe Flacco and now Dillon Gabriel. Cleveland is averaging 288.2 total offensive yards per game where the Steelers thus far have an output of 263.5. Both teams rank near the bottom of the NFL with Cleveland 27th and Pittsburgh 29th.
When it comes to running the ball both teams find themselves near the bottom of the pack. The Browns are 26th overall averaging just 95.8 yards per game. Pittsburgh is worse, ranking second to last with only 80 yards per outing. When it comes to airing it out, The Browns and Steelers are again near the bottom in this category. Between Flacco and Gabriel, the Browns have averaged 192.6 yards passing per game while Pittsburgh is at 183.5.
Dillon Gabriel is not known as a strong passer but more of a mistake free quarterback who is careful with the ball. With that said, I expect the Browns to try attacking with the running game first which will be led by Quinshon Judkins, their leading rusher who has averaged nearly 87 yards per game running the ball in the four games he has played. He has 347 yards on the season and his per rush number is a solid 4.8.
No other runner on the team is close to Judkins’ numbers. Cleveland’s passing game is weak with a leading receiver totaling just 197 yards in five games and that would be Jerry Jeudy. He has been targeted 35 times but has just 15 receptions. His per game average is a low 39.4 but his average per reception is 13.1 boosted by one reception that came for 33 yards.
Cleveland’s big tight end David Njoku is second on the team in receiving yards with 195 on 20 catches, but he has scored just once. In fact, between Flacco and Gabriel there have been only five passing touchdowns. On the ground just three. The lack of offense and so few touchdowns obviously works in favor of the Steelers defense as they seem to have turned the corner on being a more stout unit.
Based on the how the Steelers defense performed in their last game played in Ireland beating the Minnesota Vikings 24-21, seeing how the Browns’ offense has been inept, the Pittsburgh defenders could have a field day facing Dillon Gabriel. Six sacks of Carson Wentz in the Vikings game to go with two interceptions and then combined with limiting Minnesota to just 70 yards rushing bodes well for the Black and Gold.
Carson Wentz did pass for 350 yards on Pittsburgh’s secondary but keep in mind that the Steelers had to defend the likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. This game should provide an easier opposition as well as knowing Joey Porter Jr. makes his return.
When the Steelers Have the Ball
Don’t let the stats fool you. The Steelers may be near the bottom of the NFL in rushing and passing but if their last game is any indication things on offense could change rapidly and begin with his forthcoming game. While Aaron Rodgers only reached 200 yards passing against the Minnesota Vikings, he was extremely efficient. On 22 pass attempts he completed 18. His quarterback rating was 119.7.
Every time Rodgers targeted DK Metcalf, five in all, they were complete passes. Metcalf had a HUGE day with 125 yards receiving and a touchdown, one of those receptions coming for 80 yards. It was his best day yet as a new Steelers receiver. Without Jaylen Warren in the lineup the rushing attack was still very effective.
Kenneth Gainwell, who is another new face to the team also had his best day in Black and Gold rushing for 99 yards and 5.2 yard average per carry.
As the Cleveland Browns have the second best overall defense so far in 2025 the challenge to bring them down a notch or two is on the Steelers’ offense. The Browns are yielding just 247.8 yards per game second only to the surprising Atlanta Falcons. Cleveland is fourth in pass defense and first in rush defense giving up jus 75.6 yards per game.
The onus is on Aaron Rodgers and his veteran knowledge to find ways of finding holes in this stout and tough Cleveland defense. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will be challenged heavily and the Browns’ defense said earlier this year they were looking forward to getting at Aaron Rodgers so it will be key to keep him upright and not injured. I believe the Steelers start with the running game to see if they can penetrate Cleveland’s front line and then Rodgers using his skills to go to the tight ends with some RPOs.
Intangibles
Things to consider here are first and foremost, home field advantage. Secondly, Mike Tomlin’s bye week record. Next is the fact that the Browns just played last weekend while the Steelers have had 13 days to rest and heal. Injuries could be key on both sides.
For Cleveland five players are listed as questionable as of Thursday before the game. Some are important players. Denzel Ward is one who is treating a hip injury. Then there is Myles Garrett who signed a monster contract this offseason but as of October 8 was limited in practice due to an ankle injury. The other three players are Malachi Corley, Ethan Pocic, and KT Leveston.
As for the Steelers, they are relatively healthy heading into the key AFC North game. Ben Skowronek is questionable but could be ready to go as he was just experiencing body stiffness. Calvin Austin III did not practice last Wednesday. Jalen Ramsey is also questionable after being limited in practice due to a hamstring pull. Other than that, there can be no injury excuses for the Steelers.
Prediction
The Steelers must like where they are right now and how their AFC division has played out thus far. What it boils down to is that the division is theirs to lose. The favorites in the AFC North, the Ravens, are 1-4. Cincinnati is without Joe Burrow and is reeling. Then there are the Browns at 1-4. A Steelers victory widens the gap of their first-place lead. Coming off a bye, Mike Tomlin has won most of these games in his 18 years as head coach. He wins this one too. Steelers 24 Browns 17.
