It’s that time of year! With less than 10 weeks until Selection Sunday, the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament discussions are heating up. And guess what? The SEC is flexing hard this year—it’s almost a lock to produce multiple No. 1 seeds, and the conference could see at least a dozen bids.
Auburn and Tennessee are ruling the roost as the top two overall seeds, with Alabama making a solid case for a No. 3 spot right now. The competition’s fierce, though, with Iowa State, Duke, Kentucky, and Mississippi State all biting at each other’s heels.
But before we hop into the full bracket, here’s a quick note about how these projections work now versus earlier in the season.
First, the 31 automatic bids are determined by current conference standings, even if that means some curveball selections where early losses shook up the one-bid leagues. Second, greater weight is now given to the RES (results-based) metrics like KPI, Strength of Record (SOR), and WAB (Wins Above Bubble).
Predictive metrics like KenPom and BPI still carry value but are taking more of a back seat as teams earn their spot the long way—on the court.
Now, without further ado, here’s a breakdown of the projected field of 68, some commentary on bubble teams, and what’s happening at the top.
Projected Bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament
Here’s your 2025 projected seeding and matchups at a glance. Grab your coffee (or your bracket pen), and start dreaming about your team’s road to the Final Four.
East Region (Newark)
Milwaukee, WI
(1) Iowa State vs Southern / Navy (16)
(2) Nebraska vs Georgia (9)
Seattle, WA
(4) Texas A&M vs Lipscomb (13)
(5) Michigan State vs New Mexico / Saint Mary’s (12)
Providence, RI
(3) Florida vs Northern Colorado (14)
(4) Pittsburgh vs Arizona State (11)
Raleigh, NC
(2) Alabama vs Ohio (15)
(3) Wisconsin vs St. Bonaventure (10)
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
Lexington, KY
(1) Tennessee vs Youngstown State (16)
(2) Ohio State vs Louisville (9)
Seattle, WA
(4) Oregon vs UTEP (13)
(5) Utah State vs McNeese (12)
Wichita, KS
(3) Kansas vs South Alabama (14)
(4) Purdue vs North Carolina / Arkansas (11)
Cleveland, OH
(2) Marquette vs Norfolk State (15)
(3) Ole Miss vs Maryland (10)
South Region (Atlanta)
Lexington, KY
(1) Auburn vs Kansas City / Southeast Missouri State (16)
(2) Baylor vs San Diego State (9)
Providence, RI
(4) Connecticut vs Charleston (13)
(5) UCLA vs Samford (12)
Wichita, KS
(3) Mississippi State vs UMass Lowell (14)
(4) West Virginia vs Washington State (11)
Milwaukee, WI
(2) Illinois vs UNC Asheville (15)
(3) Clemson vs Vanderbilt (10)
West Region (San Francisco)
Raleigh, NC
(1) Duke vs Central Connecticut (16)
(2) St. John’s vs Dayton (9)
Denver, CO
(4) Memphis vs Grand Canyon (13)
(5) Oklahoma vs Bradley (12)
Denver, CO
(3) Houston vs Columbia (14)
(4) Gonzaga vs UC San Diego (11)
Cleveland, OH
(2) Kentucky vs Marist (15)
(3) Michigan vs Arizona (10)
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
The battle for those coveted No. 1 seeds is lit. Right now, here’s how it stacks up:
1. Auburn Tigers
With six Quad 1 wins and a dominant SEC opener, the Tigers are on fire. NET No. 1, RES No. 1—nobody’s disputing their spot at the top. The NCAAB odds by FanDuel for Auburn to win the tournament is currently at +550, the highest among all teams.
2. Tennessee Volunteers
The nation’s only unbeaten team. Their 14-0 record (plus a 24-point thrashing of Arkansas) speaks volumes.
3. Iowa State Cyclones
One razor-thin loss keeps them from being perfect. Enough said.
4. Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils boast the best predictive metrics and a strong Quad 1 record.
Shoutout to Alabama and Marquette, too. Both teams are staying close in this conversation—don’t count them out just yet.
Bubbles, Bids, and Bracketology Drama
Every Selection Sunday, it’s the bubble teams that bring the most drama. Here’s a quick snapshot of the bubbliest squads battling for a spot in the dance.
Last Five Teams In
- Arizona State Sun Devils
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Arkansas Razorbacks
- New Mexico Lobos
- Saint Mary’s Gaels
First Five Teams Out
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- UCF Knights
- Cincinnati Bearcats
- Drake Bulldogs
Who’s hanging on by a thread? Saint Mary’s and New Mexico have just enough juice to stay in the bracket—for now. Meanwhile, Indiana’s knocking on the bubble door after some solid wins.
What to Watch
This year’s NCAA Tournament race is shaping up to be one for the history books. The SEC is flexing its dominance, the No. 1 seeds are playing like future champions, and the bubble drama is as juicy as ever.
With just weeks left until Selection Sunday, every win (and every stumble) matters. Who will cement their spot in the tournament? Who will deliver shocking upsets? And, most importantly, how’s your bracket looking right now?
